Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
